NJ Offshore Fishing ReportWeek of Nov 9 · out of Manasquan Inlet

Weather first: Tuesday is a CAUTION day inshore. Winds are light at 7-11 kt from the west-southwest, but a steep 2.2-2.7 ft chop at 5-second periods from the south-southwest builds through the afternoon and the forecast confidence is low. Plan a dawn departure and be headed home by early afternoon. Wednesday is actually the calmer day (4-8 kt, 1-2 ft seas around midday) if you can slide the trip; Thursday is a hard NO-GO with east wind to 24 kt and seas building to 9 ft.

The main event is the green-water edge. A sharp CHL front runs from the Rockaway side down past the Mud Hole and along the Jersey beach, with the productive water on the WEST (inshore) side. At the Mud Hole, 15 nm from the inlet, that front measures 4.2x greener on the west side (4.1 vs 1.0 mg/m³) over a 5 nm wide transition, and it sits on top of a broader, moderate color break of 7.9x (0.64 to 5.06 mg/m³) spread across 11 nm. Both have held position for three days — long enough for bunker to pile up on the green side and for predators to find them. Surface water is around 61°F with the warm layer ending at 35 ft and the steepest temperature drop between 31 and 61 ft, so bait will be hanging in that layer right over the structure. Striped bass are the target along this edge in 60°F water during the peak of the fall run: troll bunker spoons or live-line menhaden along the edge where the green water meets the cleaner water, and watch for surface activity. The Mud Hole bottom at 20 fm (120 ft) holds black sea bass and porgy (scup) — check the current season before you keep sea bass. With the dark moon, there's no need to be there before the sun; the strongest daytime feeding runs from moonrise around 7:30 AM through the late-morning-to-early-afternoon window, which lines up with the weather.

Tolten wreck. A second sharp CHL front crosses the Tolten wreck, 15 nm from Manasquan, with the green side again to the WEST and a 2.1x step (3.7 vs 1.7 mg/m³) — a real edge, if a smaller one than the Mud Hole. This too has held for three days. The wreck sits in 14 fm (84 ft), squarely in tautog depth for the fall, and it's a reliable black sea bass piece as well. Striped bass will work the green side of the edge over the wreck — a natural two-fer: drop green crabs on the wreck for tog, then troll the edge on the way back. Mind your tautog limits for the date.

Down the beach. A sharp CHL front also sets up 5 nm north of the Lobster Hole, 8.5 nm southeast of Brigantine Inlet, 3.7x greener on the NORTHWEST side (3.6 vs 1.0 mg/m³) and three days persistent. That's a 46 nm run down the coast from Manasquan — a long haul in a building chop — but the wrecks within a mile of the spot in 12 fm (72 ft) are tautog structure, and striped bass will be pushing bunker along the inshore side of that edge near the inlet with strong tides moving water. Worth it for boats launching farther south; from Manasquan the Mud Hole is the better play.

The Rockaway corner. A CHL hotspot of 12.8 mg/m³ sits 5 nm southwest of the East Rockaway Inlet, but the water reads brown and turbid — this is runoff and sediment, not productive habitat. Striped bass will still be in the area on bunker around the inlet mouths and the obstruction a mile from the spot in 10 fm, especially with strong tidal flow on the dark moon, but fish the cleaner edges rather than the muddy core.

Inshore surface temps run 59.7-62.1°F across the zone — comfortable striped bass water and within range for the bunker-run bluefin that show along the NJ beach in November, but there's no bunker blitz signal in the data to send you looking for them specifically.

Do not go Tuesday. Steep 4-6 ft chop at 5-second periods holds nearly all day with an east-southeast swell crossing a west-northwest wind-wave, and the west-southwest wind reaches 21 kt gusting 29 by evening. Wednesday is CAUTION with a usable window from 10 AM Wednesday through Thursday morning — the early hours are still 4-5 ft and confused, but after 10 AM the wind drops below 11 kt and seas fall to 2-3 ft. Thursday is NO-GO again by midday. If you want the midshore grounds this week, Wednesday's late-morning departure is the only shot.

The warm-up southeast of the Delaware. Ten miles east-southeast of the Delaware wreck, the Delaware spot sits in a broad SST front where the surface warms 2.7°F from the shelf water toward the southeast — but that change is spread over 11 nm, so this is a gradual warming across the area, not an edge to troll along. What makes it interesting is what's underneath: the thermocline is shallower here than the surrounding water, indicating localized mixing. The warm layer holds to 75 ft at 64.7°F with the steepest drop between 61 and 155 ft, and the water at 100 ft reads 65.3°F. That mixing lifts nutrients and concentrates butterfish and squid in the 61-155 ft layer. Surface water around 65°F is squarely in bluefin range for a November shelf fish — troll ballyhoo-free spreads built around squid bars and splash bars across the warmer side to the southeast, or chunk butterfish on the wrecks 4 and 7 nm away. Those wrecks in 34 fm are also a late-fall black sea bass option if the season is open. Current is light, 0.1-0.2 kt toward the east, with slight divergence across the warming zone — nothing concentrating bait on the surface, so work the thermocline rather than looking for a rip. This is a 68 nm run — manageable from a 10 AM Wednesday start, with the midday moon-overhead feeding window (roughly 12:30-2:30 PM) hitting as you set lines.

Glory Hole. The Glory Hole spot, 41 nm out and under three miles east-northeast of the Glory Hole, shows the strongest thermocline shoaling in the zone: the warm layer ends at just 38 ft (62.6°F) versus a zone baseline of 99 ft, with the steepest drop between 61 and 155 ft to 65°F. That shallow mixing layer over the Glory Hole structure is a bait stacker, and the Glory Hole has a long November bluefin history. Current runs 0.2 kt toward the south-southwest, pushing bait toward the structure. Troll the edges of the hole early Wednesday afternoon, then drop on the structure for black sea bass in 35 fm if you need to fill the box. Surface temps here are in the low 60s — fine for bluefin, too cold for yellowfin or false albacore.

Far east. Two more thermocline-shoaling patches sit out toward Long Island — one 6 nm south-southwest of the Coimbra wreck at the Coimbra spot (76 nm from Manasquan, warm layer to 74 ft, drop 61-155 ft to 64.9°F, current 0.3 kt southeast) and one farther east at the Eastern Shelf Mixing Patch (93 nm, warm layer to 70 ft, drop 61-155 ft to 66.5°F). Both are single-signal upwelling spots for bluefin with no color change or temperature break to anchor them, and the runs are long for a boat out of Manasquan. The Coimbra wrecks offer black sea bass in 30 fm as a backup. Montauk boats should look at these; Jersey boats have better options closer.

Weather: NO-GO Tuesday. Steep 5.5-8.5 ft seas at 5-6 second periods from the northwest-to-west, an east-southeast swell crossing the wind-wave, and 17-24 kt winds gusting to 33 kt — no time of day works. Wednesday is CAUTION with a window from 2 PM Wednesday through 11 AM Thursday; before that, 4-7 ft seas and 15-20 kt northwest wind. Thursday is NO-GO by evening with east-northeast wind to 23 kt building 11 ft seas. An afternoon Wednesday departure for an overnight at the canyon edge, home Thursday morning, is the only offshore trip this forecast allows — and you must be back before Thursday's blow.

The warm water is at the slope. The Outer Slope Warm Layer spot, 103 nm from Manasquan and about four miles from the Hudson Canyon, marks where the thermocline is deeper than the surrounding water — warm, clean water extends far down the water column. Surface temps offshore run 64.9-70.3°F, and at this spot the water reads 70.9°F at both 100 and 200 ft, 69.8°F at 300 ft, and still 66.6°F at 500 ft, with the warm layer holding to 629 ft before the steepest drop between 1,044 and 1,489 ft. That is a thick slab of pelagic-friendly water over 633 fm of bottom, with moderate thermal fronts running across the slope just west and east of the spot. Chlorophyll is the cleanest in the analysis area here, 0.22-0.77 mg/m³ — blue water. Current runs 0.4 kt toward the east-southeast, the strongest flow in the area, which will set your drift along the canyon edge. This is a bigeye tuna setup: they hunt above the thermocline, and with the warm layer this deep, run your night chunk and deep-drop baits well down — 200 to 400 ft — on butterfish and squid, and set the overnight drift to work the thermal fronts rather than the center of the warm patch. Bluefin are the daytime bonus in the 65-70°F surface water along the canyon edge. The dark moon favors a steady bite; the Thursday moonrise feeding window (mid-morning) comes as you'll be running home, so make the most of the late-night window after midnight.

Triple Wrecks edge. Fifteen miles south of the Triple Wrecks, the Triple Wrecks spot sits where the shelf water warms sharply into the offshore water, with a strong thermal front from the front analysis running through the area over 38 fm of bottom. The spot's own signal is a shoaling thermocline — warm layer to 75 ft at 65.3°F, steepest drop 61-155 ft to 67.2°F, 65.9°F at 100 ft — indicating mixing that lifts bait into the upper water column right where the thermal front sits. Current is 0.2 kt toward the east, flowing along the front rather than across it. This is bluefin water: troll the cooler side of the front in the mid-60s and let the lines swing across onto the warm side. At 65 nm it's reachable in the Wednesday afternoon window, but offshore seas don't settle until 2 PM, so time your departure accordingly. Yellowfin are not in play — the warmest surface water in the area tops out at 70.3°F.